Updated: Dec 16, 2019
Optimism continued this week on a trade deal as signs of manufacturing in Asian and US seems to have up-ticked finally. Although 2 different manufacturing surveys in the US for November showed one rising and one falling. The employment report showed strong gains in manufacturing much tied to Auto strike, but nonetheless sort of confirmed at least things were stabilizing. As we indicated with clarity on the trade from likely coming before the 12/15 tariff deadline the weakness in manufacturing should subside. Thus, consistent with our overall assessment of better growth in 1H20 coming. Despite these expectations across our model portfolios we favor value vs growth and dividend paying stocks as we de-risk portfolios going into 2020. The blip in growth in 1H20 in our view will be short lived (6-9 months) thus our conservatism.
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