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Our Investment Framework

2020 Investment Framework (Preview):

  • Slow US economic growth similar to 2H19 overall, but highly dependent on trade resolution timing.  Risks are to downside.

  • Trade uncertainties to carry through 2020, but phased "resolutions" that lift tariffs can temporarily boost growth.

  • Base case is for phased trade "resolution" thru 2020 limiting growth boost.

  • Federal Reserve Rates/QE amounts dependent on trade "resolution".

  • QE/Interest Rate changes to have limited growth affects

  • Recession risks rising esp if trade uncertainty continues.

  • Asia assumed to benefit more LT vs US growth wise from trade resolution

2019 Investment Framework:

  • Slower US economic growth overall especially in 1H19.

  • Trade resolution sometime during the year

  • At most One Federal Reserve Rate Hikes

  • US Interest rates stabilizing

  • Asia to benefit more vs US growth wise from trade resolution

2018 Investment Framework:

  • 4 Federal Reserve Rate Hikes to slow US economy

  • Treasury interest rates rise considerably to reflect rate hikes, higher growth and inflation expectations.

  • Slower US economic growth 2H18 post higher 1H18 growth post tax cut effects.

  • Housing market to continue to slow tied to rising rates and affordability declines.

Analysing the Data