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BCA Weekly Commentary 7/22/22: LOOKING FORWARD NOT BACK

ECONOMIC IMPACT. As per our last newsletter the economy continues to move to recession as the base case vs just a risk. Both commodities and interest rates have begun to factor that in DESPITE the Fed still RAISING rates in face of near term inflation. As things worsen growth wise it is becoming more likely that 2023 may be very different rate wise especially on long term rates.

INVESTMENT IMPACT. The implications for slower rate hikes or even cuts as consensus turns to recession is a shift back growth stocks. Last week we outlined being prepared to shift models to technology/growth this week we have......Patience will be in order as things unfold recession wise as we balance near term weakness in earnings vs a better growth environment possibly in 2023 especially for growth stocks.

We remind investors that going forward expectations for returns for the overall market over the next decade remain low as we expect well below returns vs history. Be that it may we are hopeful our models can improve on that going forward.

Our model portfolio performance has been updated as of the date of this newsletter.

For more insights see our website and disclosures found there at BCA. The thoughts contained in this newsletters are intended lend insights into BCAs current & future thinking on changes to BCA model portfolios. They are not intended to be recommendations and should not be taken as such. As always contact us for further explanation of how these events can affect your finances. To unsubscribe from our newsletters & website please email us with "unsubscribe" in the subject.

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