SUMMARY. Our core assumption for our 7 model portfolios continues to be for 2022 to see slower overall economic growth. To be clear THIS IS NOT THE CONCENSUS thinking in fact quite the opposite. Our assumptions are that the multitude of economic headwinds which include higher taxes, inflation, debt and political polices will switch worries from too much growth & inflation to too little as we head thru the year. This week we continued to see a trend towards overall economic growth in the data, but weaker than expected which we believe may confirm our thesis. Fridays payroll report is just one example as Mays numbers missed concensus considerably.
INVESTMENT IMPACT. After having cash/bond levels at extreme levels we have essentially redeployed cash bringing levels more in line with models. We added positions in Chile after a significant sell off there of 20% with high yielding bank & mining stocks. Further, we added to our health care names given the less correlated fundamentals to the economy. Our overweight in utilities & health care continues.
Our model portfolio performance has been updated on our website as of 4/30/21.
For more insights see our website and disclosures found there at BCA. The thoughts contained in this newsletters are intended lend insights into BCAs current & future thinking on changes to BCA model portfolios. They are not intended to be recommendations and should not be taken as such. As always contact us for further explanation of how these events can affect your finances. To unsubscribe from our newsletters & website please email us with "unsubscribe" in the subject.